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Post by Ash on Feb 27, 2022 18:22:27 GMT
So as of today we are down to the last 10 fixtures for reds of the season so thought we could have a thread looking at what the run in looks like for the 4 teams in with a realistic shout of winning the league. Below Table showing how the next 2 months pans out for each Yesterday's defeat basically took away Workington's breathing space in predicting the end of season, coupled with Marine drawing Reds could have afforded to drop an above average number of points for the season in the remaining games. That is now gone and unfortunately the run in is fraught with tricky games. On paper, Warrington have the best chance of picking up the highest number of points in their remaining games looking at who they have to play, but they only have 8 remaining and only 3 at home where the vast majority of their points total has been accrued (62%) Their 77% win record at home drops to just 50% away In fact their PPG at home is 2.5 and just 1.79 Away though they are currently out performing their season away average (over the last 5 games) Leek are currently the form team, and remarkably don't seem to have much variance between home and away in terms of their points and their current trajectory would get them to around 85. Though they have to play Marine, Bootle, Runcorn and Reds in the run in Marine seem to be capable of freak results but their home form is good over the season but poor of late, they have 5 home games left and 2 against title challengers. Reds have to play all of the title rivals in the run in so its well and truly in our own hands. We have a consistently better return on the road than at home so that is one thing in our favour but trips to Marine and Leek are going to be very difficult. Bootle will also have a big say in the run in, all of the top 4 have to play them. Interestingly they are only marginally better at home than away (52% of points won at home vs 48% away, they have played 13 of each). So that doesn't really swing an advantage either way, Rylands and Leek have them at home and Marine and Reds have them away. Though facing reds will be their 4th game in 11 days Really tough to call but for me Reds need to be looking at 23 points minimum from remaining games AND not to lose to Warrington at Home Any less than this and we'd be reliant on other teams slipping up
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Post by toughlugs on Feb 28, 2022 8:24:23 GMT
Brilliant analysis. Still in Reds' hands. Wondering how we will cope with the necessary back four change with Goose's absence? There are a few options - Carroll or Casson dropping in would be the least disruptive but I guess Harrison could move over and Clarke could play RB with the left-footed Leslie coming in at LB. That would be a major change though.
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Post by Ash on Feb 28, 2022 11:05:56 GMT
Straight swap for me, only disrupt one position not many Carroll is the better option defensively but a big loss in midfield, Casson has never been convincing as a CB for me when he has played there and i certainly wouldnt want play him there against the top sides. Ideally signing a replacement CB, we could do with one just in case for the run in.
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Post by westworld on Feb 28, 2022 13:43:15 GMT
Straight swap for me, only disrupt one position not many Carroll is the better option defensively but a big loss in midfield, Casson has never been convincing as a CB for me when he has played there and i certainly wouldnt want play him there against the top sides. Ideally signing a replacement CB, we could do with one just in case for the run in. Is there a deadline for signing any new players, long term for the reds though I would love to see Matty Douglas back at the club
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Post by peterinoz on Feb 28, 2022 13:45:26 GMT
Terrific stats Ash. I see the following positives for Reds:
Rylands - we are level on points but have 2 games in hand. Marine - we have a game in hand and have a better goal difference. Leek - we are currently 3 points better off and also have a game in hand.
You are spot on, that we had a joker up our sleeve by having the luxury of a slip up. Unfortunately we have played the joker now in a match we really should have been winning.
Marine have to play Leek meaning someone will drop points. And on the final day of the season whilst we are at cellar dwellers Market Drayton.
Reds final two games are against the two bottom teams - you'd have to think 6 points all but guaranteed?
Noone ever won a league on paper of course, and there are likely to be shock results before the end of the season. Let's hope any shocks are not at our expense.
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Post by Ash on Feb 28, 2022 21:51:37 GMT
Another Table for you. This is in no way a prediction it simply extrapolates PPG against the remaining fixtures Note - for Reds PPG the lower values of whole season have been used, for all other teams its the higher value of Current form (last 5 home and away) or season has been used (Only marine's is season) So its somewhat pessimistic in that sense All it reinforces is that we cannot afford to perform poorly in the run in which is obvious but it would really help if we could take maximum points at home instead of predicted 9, that would actually give us some breathing space against Leek and Marine Away Very Frustrating having 8 days to wait for a reaction to Saturday though!
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Post by Ash on Mar 13, 2022 13:52:14 GMT
After saturday's results the extrapolated has tightened significantly. Rylands are overperforming their expected that puts them in as a big threat, they only have 6 games remaining though so they really need to win all of them to win the league They are at home to Market Drayton next fixture so expecting them to win that easily Marine have Glossop Away next game. Glossop unbeaten in 9 at home including a draw with Rylands and a Win over Bootle, Workington the last team to beat them at home. Reds at home to Trafford who average 1.13 points per games away and 1.88 at home. They have 1 win in last 10 away (Market Drayton) and 4 Draws
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redsale
Rank = Mick Galloway
Posts: 55
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Post by redsale on Mar 14, 2022 13:34:16 GMT
Great analysis. It’s in our hands, play to our potential still favourites. If Leek are the best of the rest on current form the lads should take a lot of confidence into the run in…..
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Post by garstang7 on Mar 14, 2022 15:47:14 GMT
Rylands have brought in big to bolster their squad recently. Reds are ion the box seat so just focus on our own games and let the others worry about us.
My feeling is if we can stay unbeaten to the end of the season we will be there at the top
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Post by peterinoz on Mar 27, 2022 2:51:10 GMT
Six games to go. Interested in the updates stats situation Ash if you have time. We are still ahead on PPG here thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=277, maybe our best chance of automatic promotion is if the season is curtailed right now Our remaining fixtures with opposition league position as at 27 March: Reds v Colne 14th Bootle 7th v Reds Reds v Rylands 1st Marine 3rd v Reds Reds v Kendal 19th Market Drayton 20th v Reds
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Post by Ash on Mar 27, 2022 6:49:34 GMT
Six games to go. Interested in the updates stats situation Ash if you have time. We are still ahead on PPG here thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=277, maybe our best chance of automatic promotion is if the season is curtailed right now Our remaining fixtures with opposition league position as at 27 March: Reds v Colne 14th Bootle 7th v Reds Reds v Rylands 1st Marine 3rd v Reds Reds v Kendal 19th Market Drayton 20th v Reds Will update the post later but the headline is not good. Currently it puts Rylands to win the league on Goal Difference We now must beat them at BP unless they fail to win against Runcorn. Previously a draw was ok for us
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Post by garstang7 on Mar 27, 2022 7:44:47 GMT
Momentum has definitely switched because even with Red tinted specs on performances in terms of results and goals scored has turned sour since the Widnes home defeat. Yes we are difficult to beat but the scoring issue needs addressing now Still think Reds will do it but its proving harder than imagined 6 weeks ago
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Post by westworld on Mar 27, 2022 8:06:27 GMT
We have made hard work of this season and honestly not matching the performances of the previous 2 years,a big last few weeks for the manager who seems to have been backed recruitment wise better than any past manager's. Anything other than promotion unfortunately will be classed as a failure we just seem to be lacking a plan and system to break teams down even with the quality in depth we appear to have. A big push together needed ,win all our games and we are champions the board of directors and volunteers definitely deserve it
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Post by Ash on Mar 27, 2022 9:46:28 GMT
Updated here However this is based on past performance and unfortunately we are not even currently looking like the side we were 2 months ago, let alone previous seasons. For Clarity these are the anticipated results that lead to this garstang7 says since widnes but to be honest the rot kind of started against Mossley, we were very poor in the start of that game and were luck to not be losing. We some how scraped a 2-0 Didnt deserve 3 points against Trafford or Ramsbottom, Yes we were the better side against Prescot (as we bloody well should be) but in those three games i cant recall the opposition keepers making a single save. Most of our "chances" were shots from distance that were blocked. Our style of play is awful at the moment its just long balls hit forward which we fail to win consistently enough, no problem if we want to play that way but we should have signed Sefton Gonzales not Connor Gaul. If Jerome does win it its flicked on to no-one as he's on his own, if the ball is not won and headed away our midfield is nowhere to be seen to pick up the 2nd ball. This means we are constantly ceeding possession, meaning we cant build any sustained pressure against teams. In reality this makes us much easier to defend against as we are not pulling defences around to pull them out of position or create openings. They are able to maintain their shape and restrict space so we are not even forcing the poor teams into mistakes. Our midfield and forwards are constantly caught in possession or have a poor touch and get tackled or if they do try a pass its not executed well enough and is under or over hit. Swear yesterday many of Steven Rigg's 2nd touches were tackles. Was like having Steve Birks back. But he wasnt the only one so its slightly unfair to single him out. We don't pass the ball quickly enough either allowing the opposition to be able to close us down and restrict our options. We arent using the channels enough either, the long balls are always into the centre of the pitch which is easier to defend. When we do attack out wide the delivery is too delayed into the box, then its not even accurate enough. If you put a first time ball in and its crap i can kind of accept that, but when you cut back, delay, line it up and then its massively overhit thats just not good enough. I dont know if other teams have just figured us out or if its of our own doing, Also i accept i cant offer what the Manager is to do about it but we look completely bereft of confidence going forward. Thats not at all a good thing going into the business end of the season. Its been hard to say last 3 games who was the side in the top 5 and who was the one from lower mid table. On the flip side, we are still picking up points, 7 from last 9. Thats still just about ok. The league is still in our own hands but we have run out of lives now. We Absolutely Must Win the next 2 games. If we do not then all i can see is Playoff unless Rylands have a sudden drop in form. Just need one good performance against Colne at home and i reckon that could spark us back into life!
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Post by peterinoz on Mar 27, 2022 15:20:41 GMT
Bootle will also have a big say in the run in, all of the top 4 have to play them. Interestingly they are only marginally better at home than away (52% of points won at home vs 48% away, they have played 13 of each). So that doesn't really swing an advantage either way, Rylands and Leek have them at home and Marine and Reds have them away. Though facing reds will be their 4th game in 11 days Unfortunately we didn't play Bootle when planned. Their fixtures now read..... 2 April Leek v Bootle 5 April Bootle v Reds 16 April Trafford v Bootle 18 April Bootle v Marine 23 April Rylands v Bootle After a record of 7-0-2 since 1 Jan until 21 March, Bootle have now lost two on the bounce; 26 March Bootle 0-3 Kidsgrove 22 March Runcorn 3-1 Bootle
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